These hydraulic mega-projects underscore the ambitious local and regional political aims of the Ethiopian ruling elites. After all, the VCLT allows states to withdraw from or terminate a treaty owing to a fundamental change of circumstances which has occurred and which was not foreseen by the parties (Article 62(1)). According to Baradei, hydropower dams create immense turbulence in the water, where chemical reactions such as dissolved oxygen can destroy fauna and flora. Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing AG, 79-110. Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam: Ending Africa's Oldest Geopolitical Rivalry? No water at all was allocated to Ethiopia. Given the advancement of the dam construction - the GERD being, as of March 2015, 40% complete, according to Ethiopia - Egypt had good reason to reconsider its position (RANE, 2015). Egypt Forced to Negotiate on Nile Dam. Match facts: Egypts Ahly v South Africas Mamelodi Sundowns (CAF Champions.. Kevin Harts first Egypt show cancelled 'due to local logistical issues', Match facts: Sudans Al-Hilal v Egypts Ahly (CAF Champions League), Match facts: Egypts Ahly v Cameroons Coton Sport (CAF Champions League), Egyptian Premier League results & scorers (20th matchday), Spain La Liga results & scorers (21st matchday), 13 Egyptian women on Forbes Middle East 100 Most Powerful businesswomen 2023, Egyptian Premier League results & fixtures (18th matchday), English Premier League results & scorers (23rd matchday), Prioritising the best solutions for sustainable development, A new beginning for education and beyond, Prioritizing the UN's Global Development Agenda, US-Africa Leaders Summit: Between expectations and realities. Most recently, there have been suggestions that the African Union should resolve the disagreement. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Africa's Water Tower Al Jazeera (2020). These two factors could become serious problems. The Tendaho, Tekeze, and the Gibe series are only a few examples from that period. Article 5 requires that watercourse states utilise an international watercourse in an equitable and reasonable manner and creates the duty to cooperate in the protection and development of the watercourse. Poverty alleviation, which is a major concern for all Nile Basin countries, could form the basis of a cooperative arrangement between all the Niles riparians. Egypt, which lies 1,600 miles downstream of the Dam, believes its operation will reduce the amount of fresh water available to it from the Nile. Match. March 14, 2020, 6:57 AM. The dispute over the GERD is part of a long-standing feud between Egypt and Sudanthe downstream stateson the one hand, and Ethiopia and the upstream riparians on the other over access to the Niles waters, which are considered a lifeline for millions of people living in Egypt and Sudan. Ethiopia, one of the poorest countries in Africa, has the second largest population in the continent. Egypt relies on the river for as much as 90 percent of its freshwater and sees the new dam as an existential . In order to sustain this benefit in the long run, Ethiopias neighbouring countries will have to continue to purchase hydroelectric energy, and rainfall will have to fall at the same rate on the Ethiopian Plateau. 74 cubic metres. India dispatch: Supreme Court limits DNA paternity testing in divorce proceedings, prioritizing childrens privacy rights, US dispatch: Texas case could limit access to abortion medication, Copyright infringement made federal crime. First came the 1999 Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA). Similarly, in 2018, the UNSC noted the water security risks in African nations such as Somalia, Sudan and Mali. The Friends of Lake Turkana, an NGO representing indigenous groups whose livelihoods are dependent on the Lake, filed a suit to halt the construction of the dam. The other riparian states can then be brought in, either through the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) or some other regional framework, to secure an agreement that is binding on all the states. Water Politics and the Gulf States: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Egypt had asked the UNSC to push the three countries to adhere to their obligations in accordance with the rules of international law in order to reach a fair and balanced solution to the issue of the GERD. Egypts repeated references to the rules of international law is part of an effort to maintain its so-called natural and historical rights that were established and reaffirmed by the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and 1959 Agreement between Egypt and Sudan, respectivelytreaties many of the other involved parties reject as anachronistic and untenable. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will have negative impacts not only on Egypt but also on poor communities in Ethiopia as well as on its Nile Basin neighbours. Construction on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam began in 2011 and it is currently nearing completion. Could the Nile dispute be an opportunity to boost freshwater technology? The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a critical project that intends to provide hydroelectricity to support the livelihoods of millions of people in the region. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. Both Egypt and Ethiopia could make arguments in support of their positions. However, the DoP lacks these key traits, and these omissions suggest that it may simply be a non-binding declaration designed to ease political tensions and to illuminate a way forward. The crucial leverage regarding Egypts water security lies with the Blue Nile countries Ethiopia and Sudan, as the Blue Nile is the main contributor to the Nile Rivers flow downstream. The filling regime and operational methods of GERD will affect Egypt, in particular through its impact on the operation of its Aswan High Dam (AHD) which aims at mitigating the high variability of the Nile River flow. A regional framework for the management of the Nile already existsthe Nile Basin Initiative mentioned abovewhich is a partnership among the Nile riparian states that was launched in 1999. L'Europe en Formation, 365(3), 99-138. It also codified the principles of equitable and reasonable utilisation and no significant harm (essentially importing from the Watercourses Convention). Egypt has issued a public statement to that effect. From this round of talks, it appears that negotiations are able to move forward and address other sticking points on the agenda, such as conflict resolution mechanisms and the dams operations in the event of multi-year droughts (Al Jazeera, 2020). Faced with the anachronistic Nile Waters Treaties on the one hand and the absence of a suitable replacement on the other, discussions about the Dam have fallen into something of a stalemate. In: Yihdego, Z. et al. Perhaps the most significant project in the 2003 plan was the Chemoga-Yeda Hydroelectric Project, a series of five small dams on Blue Nile tributaries and two dams on the Genale River with a couple more envisioned for a later phase. This is because the VCLT allows an older treaty to be rescinded by a new one if the new one concerns the same topic (Article 59). We shall begin with the former. Subsequent impact studies were performed by the European Investment Bank and the African Development Bank, and in the light of the results, these banks cancelled their funding for Gibe III. Ethiopia, however, prefers to have the flexibility to make decisions on how to deal with droughts. Cairo Controversy prevailed in the Egyptian public opinion, after Deltares, a Dutch advisory institute, announced on Sept. 15 its withdrawal from a study to assess the risks that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is under construction on the Blue Nile, can cause to Egypt and Sudan. It too has legal arguments it could adduce in support of its position that the Dam is permitted under international law. Already, on June 19, 2020, Egyptian authorities called upon the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to intervene after tripartite talks had failed to secure an agreement on the filling schedule for the GERD. The 6,000-megawatt Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, shown here in May 2016, is scheduled to begin producing electricity in 2017. This antipathy is not new, with Munzinger noting even in the nineteenth century that Ethiopia is a danger for Egypt [which] must either take over Ethiopia and Islamize it or, retain it in anarchy and misery. Still, the Dam brings the old enmity into sharp focus. There are three key articles. The Blue Nile is Ethiopias largest river, with high potential for hydropower and irrigation. However, another trend stresses the need to approach the question from a broader and more holistic perspective. Given the fact that the conflict between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan over the GERD seems to be among the most pressing issues in the region, it might be advisable for emphasis to be placed on securing a trilateral agreement that secures the peace between these three countries first. Created by. An argument could be made that some of its provisions have passed into customary international law, however, that would require clear general practice and opinio juris. As noted above, the instrument concedes for the first time that Ethiopia has legitimate interests over the Nile. The Ethiopian government is spending $4.7 billion to construct the 1,780-meter dam across the Blue Nile. Second, the upstream riparian states must recognize and accept Egypts near total dependence on the waters of the Nile River. At that point, the lake that . By Ambassador Gurjit Singh*. The US has revived diplomatic efforts to resolve the dispute sparked by Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project on the Nile. Misplaced Opposition to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Update. (2011). Consequently, under the principle of pacta tertiis nec nocent nec prosunt, it could demonstrate that those treaties cannot bind it as it was a third party and did not give its consent. Government of the United States of America. It seeks to build an infrastructure for regional water hegemony, positioning it, at the very least, in such a way that it can exchange water for oil. Egypts original goal was to have the project purely and simply cancelled. The decisions that this group renders must be binding on all riparian states. (2017). For more on the background and history of these important relationships, see my book with former AGI Director Mwangi S. Kimenyi, Governing the Nile River Basin: The Search for a New Legal Regime., not be filled without a legally binding agreement, when the flow of Nile water to the dam falls below 35-40 b.c.m. It merely provides at Article III that Ethiopia undertakes not to construct any work across the Blue Nile, Lake Tsana, or the Sobat which would arrest the flow of their waters into the Nile. In other words, Ethiopia only agreed that it would not completely stop the flow of tributaries into the Nile. This is because it is traditionally understood to refer to waterways that form intrinsic parts of international boundaries. Egypt, fearing major disruptions to its access to the Niles waters, originally intended to prevent even the start of the GERDs construction. Ethiopia also seems to have the political upper hand given that the Dam is effectively a fait accompli and given that Egypts erstwhile downstream ally, Sudan, switched sides in the dispute leaving the Egyptians diplomatically isolated. The Dam is used to generate electricity and went into partial operation in 2022. Ethiopian Renaissance Dam & Its implications on Egypt Still, if the exception was somehow activated, it would mean that Egypt remains entitled to 66% of the Nile River waters and that this figure should be used as the baseline for any future negotiations. [35] Recently, the tensions among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile have escalated, particularly after Ethiopia announced that it had started filling the GERDs reservoir, an action contrary to Egypts mandate that the dam not be filled without a legally binding agreement over the equitable allocation of the Niles waters. Egypt says. The situation seemed to improve in the beginning of 2015 when tripartite negotiations were held in order to determine principles of cooperation. In turn, Egypt water policy and management should be changes or modified to overcome the great challenges. Moreover, with GERD, Ethiopia opts for a hydropower expansion strategy on the Blue Nile, and not an irrigation strategy. Although Khartoum initially opposed the construction of the GERD, it has since warmed up to it, citing its potential to improve prospects for domestic development. Ethiopia completes third filling of Blue Nile mega-dam reservoir Workers move iron girders from a crane at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), near Guba, Ethiopia, on Dec. 26, 2019. Von Lossow, T. & Roll, S. (2015). Such an understanding and appreciation of Egypts water vulnerability would help the riparians develop a water management protocol that can significantly enhance equitable and reasonable use while minimizing significant harm to downstream riparians. Sima Aldardari. The Tripartite National Council (TNC) was then established, consisting of members from each of the three countries with the aim of carrying through the IPoE's recommendations (Attia & Saleh, 2021). "Today as you see behind me . You can revoke your consent to the site operator at any time by unsubscribing from the newsletter. The significance of Gulf involvement was highlighted by the . (PDF) The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Evaluating Its Ethiopia: The Untold Story of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will have negative impacts not only on Egypt but also on poor communities in Ethiopia as well as on its Nile Basin neighbours Ethiopia's strategy for dam construction goes far beyond developmental goals. The failure of the latest talks over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has intensified tensions between Ethiopia and downstream states Egypt and Sudan. Addis Ababa expects to sell no less than 4,000 Megawatts (MW) of electricity to its regional partners in the coming decade. As a hydroelectric project, the dam is expected to generate 6,000 megawatts of electricity. The current global energy crisis may help in this regard in the sense that Egyptians may find the allure of discounted hydroelectric energy stronger than ever before. However, it also makes useful concessions to Egypt which it may wish to press. Ethiopian Yearbook of International Law 2017. Although Egypt and Sudan are likely to resist efforts to include the other upstream riparians in the negotiations or to allow a regional organization, such as the NBI, to serve as an implementing organ, they must understand that the Nile River is a regional watercourse and its management must be approached from a regional perspective. This article quantifies the major benefits of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project for Sudan and Egypt based on GERDP technical design and quantitative analysis. Ethiopia needs regional customers for its hydropower to ensure the economic feasibility of the GERD. Gebreluel, G. (2014). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is estimated to cost close to 5 billion US dollars, about 7% of the 2016 Ethiopian gross national product. It signifies that Egypts de facto veto power on major upstream dams has been broken, and it clearly demonstrates the political will of Ethiopia to develop its water infrastructure even in the absence of a comprehensive basin agreement. One senior advisor to former Ethiopian prime minister Meles Zenawi alluded to it when he said that Ethiopia will supply the electricity, Sudan the food, and Egypt the money. To which we might add, and South Sudan will supply the oil.. In response, Ethiopia threatened military force to defend the dam and protect its interests (The New Arab, 2020a). What are the disadvantages of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam An optimistic trend among todays African commentators focuses primarily on economic growth rates and pays little attention to human tolls, questions of transparency and accountability, and the sustainability of growth. (2012). Trilateral talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to finalise an agreement on a cooperation framework for the GERD have been mediated by the African Union, World Bank and United States. Over the years, Egypt has used its extensive diplomatic connections and the colonial-era 1929 and 1959 agreements to successfully prevent the construction of any major infrastructure projects on the tributaries of the Nile. While this means new opportunities to develop extended irrigation-based agriculture for the Sudanese, it represents also a new threat for Egypts current Nile water utilisation (Whittington et al., 2014). Disadvantages of the grand ethiopian renaissance dam jobs While the water will return to its normal state before reaching Egypt, the damage to these populations will be permanent. A Grand New Dam on the Nile - NASA General view of the talks on Hidase Dam, built on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia, between Sudan and Egypt in Khartoum, Sudan on October 04, 2019. The Nile waters have historically been governed by the Nile Waters Treaties. These colonial-era agreements comprise (i) the 1902 Anglo-Ethiopian Treaty (with the UK representing modern-day Sudan); (ii) the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty (with the UK representing modern-day Kenya and Uganda) and (iii) the 1959 Egypt-Sudan Treaty (with the UK now absent as a result of decolonisation). The dispute resolution committee could be made up of the Nile Council of Ministers (Nile-COM), which includes the ministers in charge of water affairs in all member states of the Nile River Basin. What could have been strictly technical negotiations have turned into a political deadlock. Ethiopia, with a population of more than 115 million people and Projected to be 230 million by 2050. Ethiopia has never 'consumed' significant shares of the Nile's water so far, as its previous political and economic fragility in combination with a lack of external financial support, due to persistent Egyptian opposition to projects upstream, prevented it from implementing large-scale projects. A series of talks since then have largely failed to produce a consensus among the concerned countries, with tensions rising again after Ethiopia announced its intention to begin filling the dam in July 2020. Flashcards. "The Blue Nile is the lifeblood of Egypt and its people and critics fear the dam could significantly reduce water flow to the country." "Climate change is such a big unknown. PDF Negative Impact of Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Population on - AJER This was an attempt at a wholesale replacement for the Nile Waters Treaties. In particular, the DoP takes a very strict approach to the no significant harm rule. Success on this endeavor will only occur under a legally binding regime that ensures mutually beneficial rights. Indeed, as Tekuya notes, Ethiopia persistently objected to the 1929 and 1959 treaties and made clear that its failure to exploit the Nile resulted from a lack of capacity rather than a lack of a legal right to do so. Environmental Impacts Of Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam On The Turning then to Ethiopia. The researchers looked at the dynamic interactions between the Nile's hydrology and infrastructure and Egypt's economy. They generate electricity, store water for crop irrigation and help to prevent floods. This is on the basis of the principles of State succession as outlined in the Vienna Convention on the Succession of States (VCSS). Improved relations among Egyptians, Ethiopians, and Sudanese can go a long way in enhancing the ability of their leaders to negotiate and adopt agreements that reflect the interests of citizens, especially regarding economic development and poverty alleviation. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a powerful generation linchpin Egypt and Ethiopia have once again locked horns over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile. Although Ethiopia has argued that the hydroelectric GERD will not significantly affect the flow of water into the Nile, Egypt, which depends almost entirely on the Nile waters for household and commercial uses, sees the dam as a major threat to its water security. It provides clear benefits to all three riparian, such as flood control, reduced flood damages and sediment control. Because Ethiopia has been so cavalier with regard to the technical aspects of its dams, portions of them have also caved in soon after they began operation.
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